Proceed with Caution: The Fragile Five
written by: Brad Wellen  08/19/2008

There are few worse feelings than seeing one of your fantasy studs go down for a prolonged period of time with an early season injury. Just off the top of my head, jumping onto a bicycle without a seat and listening to Michael Bolton’s “Time, Love & Tenderness” may be the only more painful experiences than watching your season limp off the field. There is no guaranteed method to predicting injuries, however if fantasy owners follow trends and are aware of frequently hurt players, they can avoid selecting a potential medical disaster. Several prominent names are entering the season at less than 100% and many are coming off major injuries from the ’07 season. I will guide you through five big name players to keep an eye on because as enticing as their upsides may be, they are of no use to you on the sidelines.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami Dolphins

Through seven weeks of the 2007 NFL season, Ronnie Brown was the most valuable fantasy running back in the league. In his four complete games last year, the Auburn product averaged 115 rushing and 70 receiving yards along with five total TDs. Now, less than a year removed from ACL surgery, his starting role appears to be in jeopardy. Brown has looked less than impressive in training camp and has totaled just six yards on five preseason carries while sustaining a minor thumb injury to add to his health concerns. All reports out of Dolphins camp indicate that Ricky Williams has been the most impressive player on the field and has turned the heads of coaches and more importantly Bill Parcells.


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8.19.08 9:37 PM In search of his sixth consecutive win, AJ Burnett threw 120 pitches over 8 innings against the Yankees. He gave up five hits, walked one and struck out 13. We knew he'd improve as the year went on, considering his sabermetric stats were far better than his actual stats. Thanks to a Marco Scutero RBI double in the bottom of the 8th, Burnett improved to 16-9 with a 4.43 ERA on the year.  However, he's 6-1 with a 3.30 ERA since the All-Star Break
8.19.08 9:15 PM Ervin Santana went 7 innings and struck out 9 while allowing only five baserunners.  He gave up one run, lowering his ERA to 3.39 and has now struck out 166 batters in 169 innings.  Ervin has finally put it all together and has become a top 15 starting pitcher.  Since Scot Shields and Darren Oliver blew his win in the 8th inning, so Santana remains at 13-5.  He'll look to continue his breakout season next week at home against Scott Feldman and the Rangers.

8.18.08 7:15 PM Ian Kinsler will be placed on the DL and could miss the rest of the season.  With nothing left to play for, the Rangers may choose to shut him down rather than risk him aggravating his groin injury. Just another reason for you to read this article.   We had him at the 12th overall pick in 2009 and this could drop him into the second round.  Kinsler was on pace to lead the majors in runs scored and a 25/25 season was a strong possibility.  We think he's leaped over Brandon Phillips and has become the #2 second baseman for fantasy purposes.  This is a tough break, though, for owners still playing for this year.


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