So much for saving the best for last. Nope, I saved my worst for last by going 0-4 last week. Now we have to get that awful taste out of my mouth, it's a little like drinking milk past the expiration date...like 2 weeks past the expiration date. It still stings a little bit, but, here's my analysis of what happened. I thought I was looking good when the Cards jumped out to a 7-0 lead on the Saints early. That's exactly what the Cardinals needed to do, start strong, get the crowd quiet and keep up with the Saints. Unfortunately, the Cards defense is the worst in playoff history and the Saints exposed it for what it was. I have no one to blame but myself... and Reggie Bush. Saturday night I loved the Ravens getting a touchdown against the Colts, but I broke my own rule. I promised after betting against the Colts one too many times I would not do it again. Whoops. Who knows what happens if Ed Reed holds on to the football in that game, but, the Ravens offense was non-existent and the Ravens showed a complete lack of marbles with some of their play calling. I have no one to blame but myself... and Pierre Garcon. On Sunday the Vikings absolutely took it to the Cowboys. I will admit, I partially took the Cowboys to jinx them because I cant take the team I am rooting for, right? But, I also expected the Cowboys defense to show up. I guess they figured they'd won a playoff game and a game in December, the season was already a success. I hate Dallas, I have no one to blame but myself... and Wade Phillips. Finally, the Jets pulled the plug on the Chargers and secured my perfect weekend. I seriously underestimated the Jets and overestimated the Chargers. Although, if Keading hits a couple field goals that game plays out completely differently. Oh well, I have no one to blame but myself...and Nate Kaeding.
I'm not here to talk about the past, I am here to talk about the future. Lets' put that mess behind us, shall we?
Jets @ Colts (-7.5): Two rookie head coaches going at it in the AFC Championship game, how about that. You have to love what Rex Ryan has done for the Jets with a Rookie QB. Back to back years Ryan has been in this game with a rookie QB, that has to count for something. A lot has been made about the Colts letting the Jets into the Playoffs and now regretting that decision. Do you really thing Peyton Manning is going to let that happen? Yes, the Jets have a great running game. So did the Ravens. But, the Jets also shut down a previously unstoppable Chargers offense, so, what does Mr. Manning have to say about that? Think about how similar the Chargers and Colts offenses are. Not much of a running game to speak of, very good to great quarterbacks a premier WR with solid back-ups and an elite tight end. That did not phase the Jets last week, so, what will make this week different? Peyton. He is the best QB I have ever seen play the game. He is able to dissect exactly what the defense is going to do and that, my friends, will be the difference. So, due to Mr. Manning, and the fact I promised I'd never bet against the Colts again, I will take the Colts.
Vikings @ Saints (-4): They don't get much tougher to call than this one, do they? Both teams are coming off very impressive 31-point wins against formidable opponents in the Divisional series. The Saints had everything going, offense, defense, special teams, hell, Reggie Bush even ran over a defender, something he hasn't done since high school! You can also not forget about the Who Dat nation. The Saints fans are incredible and they truly do deserve a super bowl appearance. But, how do you go against the Vikings after they demolished the suddenly sexy Superbowl pick Cowboys? The Vikings have the best d-line in the NFL and proved it last week. Romo has spent the past week in a D-A-I-Y-E Spa thanks to that D-line. However, Sean Payton does an amazing job of calling offensive plays with enough protection for Drew Brees. Since Payton was hired (January 2006) the Saints have given up the second least sacks in the NFL. Brees was only sacked the 4th fewest times in the NFL this season (20). So, the Vikings will need some help getting pressure on Brees. Unfortunately, two lineman are banged up from last week’s game. Kevin Williams and Ray Edwards both suffered injuries and missed practice this week. I am sure they will play, but, how well? I will be rooting for the Vikings, but, I can't go against Payton (funny, I can't go against a Peyton in the other game). I will give the points here as well, and hope I am wrong.
Enjoy the games my friends, I'll see you in Miami.
COMMENTS/
CONVERSATION
by: stainer22 | date: 03/05/2010 12:11 am
The Index is always a key part of my draft. Two years ago it led me to Greinke and Lincecum. Last year Jimenez. Keep up the good work FP!
by: BrettG | date: 03/05/2010 8:34 pm
The pitchers annotated in yellow represent those who were elite last year based on their ability.
Once this season begins, anyone receiving a current score of 5.00 or better will be deemed an elite weekly starter and will also be highlighted in yellow.
by: mick605 | date: 03/06/2010 2:34 am
this is great guys, thanks for making your pitching index so easy to follow. I'm looking forward to a season of domination!
by: mikeyboy324 | date: 03/07/2010 12:37 pm
This is my first year using this is this how you rank your pitchers like is vazquez considered the best starter or do are there are things your looking at?...also when people say they found greinke and jimenez last year bye looking at the chart what overall number did they have last year and who looks to be that person This year?
by: BrettG | date: 03/07/2010 1:33 pm
mikeyboy,
Last year, Vazquez was tied with Lincecum as the best fantasy pitcher, ability wise. Most of the time that translates to fantasy wise as well.
Now that Vazquez has moved to the AL, his numbers may not be exactly the same as they were in 2009.
For all those who didn't have any drastic changes, then their ranking on this list would be accurate.
When looking for sleepers this year, you should look at the chart and find the names that you are surprised to be ranked so high.
Generally speaking, those are the ones who pitched better than their numbers showed and should be nice bargains this year.
by: BrettG | date: 03/07/2010 1:34 pm
Brett Anderson, Jorge De La Rosa and Jonathan Sanchez are three that comes to mind.
by: mikeyboy324 | date: 03/07/2010 1:46 pm
ok i see thanks i just was a lil confused bye the vazquez ranking
by: amiro | date: 03/07/2010 4:58 pm
How does this Sabermetric Pitching Index differ from your 1-60 SP rankings here --> http://www.fantasyphenoms.com/baseball.php?id=1369
Just wondering the difference in rankings between the two and as far as FBB drafts, which one should be considered more heavily.
Thanks!
by: mizzouree | date: 03/07/2010 6:09 pm
I don't understand Jake Peavy being deemed elite last year. I owned him, and he was anything but elite last year.
by: BrettG | date: 03/07/2010 6:21 pm
Alex,
I would combine the two equally. Some pitchers in the top 60 didn't pitch much at all last year, so they aren't included in the Sabermetric Pitching Index, such as Brandon Webb, Ben Sheets and Tim Hudson.
People in the top 60 are ranked to include projected innings pitched, etc.
The Index refers to a pitcher's ability.
Jeff to answer your question, Jake Peavy is one of the pitchers who didn't pitch much last year, but when he did, he showed the same ability he has in previous years.
His ranking in the top 60 is lower because he's now gone two seasons in a row without 200 innings.
However, his ability doesn't seem to have diminished.
