Who To Watch - St. Louis and Milwaukee
	written by: Brett Greenfield 02/18/2009

The St. Louis Cardinals

My guy to have in 2009 is Adam Wainwright. Wainwright is the most reliable starter on this team. He’s given three straight seasons with an ERA below 3.70 and last year went 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He’s perfectly healthy this year and can be had in rounds 13-15. He may not strike out a ton of batters, but he can be a reliable #4 SP for your team. 

 

My guy not to have in 2009 is Rick Ankiel. The former pitcher strikes out roughly 25% of the time he’s up, which led to a .263 AVG last year. He may provide a cheap source of 25-30 homers, but he doesn’t play every day. The Cardinals’ crowded OF includes Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker and Chris Duncan, leaving four players for three spots. Ankiel will hurt your AVG and won’t provide you with any steals. Leave him off of your roster.

Looking for a cheap source of power?  How does .265-.270 and 30-35 HR's sound in the 17^th round?  That's what you can get if you draft my "guy to have in 2009" Rick Ankiel.  While Ankiel does come with some concerns over health, there is no doubt in his power.  His AB/HR was 15.6  in 2007 and 16.5 in 2008.  Take the 16.3 AB/HR rate from last season, apply it to 550 AB's and you get about 34 HR's.  Apply it to 600 AB's and you get about 37 HR's.  While the AVG may not reach much above .270, that's the same type of production (if not better) projected from Carlos Pena who is being drafted an astounding 12 rounds earlier.  Pena has never reached over 490 AB's in a season.  All things equal, if I had to choose 550 AB's from either Pena or Ankiel, I'd take Ankiel 10 times out of 10. 

Speaking of cheap power, Troy Glaus provided that last season.  However, it was announced late last month that Glaus would be out for 12 weeks due to shoulder surgery.  Knowing this, fantasy baseball mock drafters have let Glaus drop from an ADP of round 17 to round 22.  Even when Glaus comes back in mid to late April, he'll have had no spring training and very few minor league AB's.  Add that on top of the fact that the surgery was on his right shoulder, his throwing shoulder and the shoulder that provides the power behind a right handed swing.  His AVG was destined to come down from .270 anyway.  I'm not convinced, given his injury history and this current shoulder problem, that he will be 100% for much of the 2009 season.  I'd rather take my chances on a guy like Billy Butler or Kevin Kouzmanoff, who are being drafted around the same time. 
 

My guy not to have in 2009 is any one of the Brewers 20/20 hitters who bat below .270. In examining the Brewers roster, I noticed a trend. The person on this team with the highest AVG last year was Ryan Braun at .284. Fielder was below that mark as was Hardy. The worst 3B in baseball, Bill Hall also batted lower than .250. This is a hit or miss team and I’d rather miss after Braun and Fielder are off the board. Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and Mike Cameron all are 20/20 threats. However, they come with the attachment of a batting average that will hurt your team. Cameron and Weeks are career .240 hitters and Hart is headed in that direction as well. I’d prefer to get my steals and power elsewhere than have it come with baggage such as a .240-.260 AVG.

Second half performances can have a lot of influence with fantasy baseball team owners.  I'm not completely sold on this as a way to gauge future performance (see: Mark Teahan 06-07), but it certainly has worked a fare amount of times in the past.  If Charles Barkley were to summarize Corey Hart's second half last season it would go something like…

"Corey Harts is a great player, but that dude is tuurrrrable.  Turrible, turrible, turrible.  His is no longer in my fav five outfielders."

And he'd be right!  Corey Hart is a 27 year old with both speed and power, but lacking in the plate discipline department.  His swing% on balls outside the strike zone had a dramatic spike from 25.7% in 2007 to 31.7% in 2008.  To me this is a just second year player pressing too hard in a pennant race rather than an indication of what's to come.  Ever heard of the term "sophomore slump"?  Apply that to Corey Hart's 2008 and look forward to a bounce back 2009.  .280 20/20 is the minimum with upside for much more.  He's my "guy to have" for 2009.

Honorable mention: Yovanni Gallardo. His non-arm related injury kept him from being a top 10 starter last season. 

Trevor Hoffman.  He has been a great closer for so many years and has set many records at his position.  However, Hoffman, my "guy not to have in 2009", is not a top 20 closer in fantasy baseball anymore.  In 2008 Hoffman's HR/FB was his highest since 2003.  Take him out of Petco Park, add his age (41) and 85 MPH gas to the equation.  Saves are saves and the Brewers are only second to the Angels in save opportunities over the last three seasons, but Hoffman's name may cause him to be lumped together with the middle of the closer pack on draft day.  Look past the name and the records.  He's a late round closer now, nothing more.