Fantasy Baseball Roundtable
Looking to 2010	written by: Brett Greenfield 10/04/2009

As the 2009 season comes to a close, the final roundtable question focused on 2010. Which pitcher and hitter are your top sleepers for 2010?

Tim Dierkes, RotoAuthority

For my pitcher, I'll take Brett Anderson.  He's just 22 in February, and as a rookie his numbers are solid across the board.  Since July 1 he has a 3.09 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with an 8.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.  Yes, please.  Seems like one of those guys who will go in the 10-12th round assuming the hype doesn't get too huge, and that'll be great value.

 

I'll take Carlos Gonzalez for the hitter.  He looks like a good bet for a 20/20 season and a legitimate 30/30 candidate, as tough as that is.  Raked at Triple A too, plays his home games in Coors...he will wind up on a lot of my teams in 2010.

Personally, there is no such thing as a “sleeper” anymore, at least in 12-team leagues. There is so much information out there on the net and so many sources of information that nothing falls through the cracks, unless you are in a weak, entry-level league. But when we dig deeper, scraping the bottom of the pot to get the juicy gunk into the fantasy gravy, we can find some players that can make the difference between cashing and not cashing. So here are two players to keep an eye on:

 

Let’s look at Luke Hochevar. Before you start laughing, consider this: the way to make yourself an expert is to focus not on actual statistics generated but on an underlying skill set. The benchmarks for a good starting pitcher are over six K/9, less than three BB/9 and a K/BB rate of 2.0. Hochevar meets all of these criteria, with 6.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9. and a 2.4 K/BB ratio. The problem? A horrible 59% LOB%, which is not his fault and is simply a matter of bad luck and a bad bullpen. So, we have a 26-year-old pitcher with experience, better than average skills who can get 50% of batted balls on the ground and an ERA that is almost two full points higher than his expected ERA? I’ll take two please.



 

For a hitter, how about Carlos Ruiz? If I said you could have a .300 hitting catcher for nothing, is that something that would interest you? Again, forget the actual batting average and look at the skills. Ruiz has the skills that are needed to hit .300. He has a contact rate approaching 90%, walks more than he strikes out and has above average power. At a position where hitting is scarce, you have a guy that can hit .300 with 15 home runs. Ask Ryan Doumit and Russell Martin owners this year how much they would have liked that performance. Throw in the fact that he improved in the second half and that he is 30-years old and at his power hitting peak and you have a diamond in the rough.

Rob McQuown, Hardball Times

For hitters, there are many low-budget guys who should be great value picks in AL-only or NL-only leagues.  In a mixed-league context, however, it's always a little tricky picking a “sleeper”, since the term implies less-than-warranted hype.  Yet, one candidate really jumped out when considering the mixed-league options - Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez.  He has good power, slugging .630 in AAA before slugging .520 in the bigs.  His speed has matured into SB effectiveness, as he has 16 in just 288 PA (with just 4 CS).  He plays in a park which aids both batting average and power.  His platoon splits are encouraging for avoiding a “platoon” label (.286/.351/.510 against LHP).  And, most importantly, he's almost certain to be overlooked, barring a huge postseason; his “MVP” stats are .280-12-26, which - even with 16+ SB - won't turn heads.  He will be just 24 years old, so further development is certainly possible, too, in addition to the added playing time of having a full-time job.  He's hit .298/.363/.562 in just 138 Coors PA, much less than half his season PA, so even more of a “Home Cooking” advantage can be expected in 2010.


 

For a pitcher to be a true “sleeper”, he almost has to be a sub-$3 type, since so many $1 types end up being among the better pitchers in any given season.  The pick here is Marc Rzepczynski.  On July 10, for the Heater-sponsored THT Waiver Wire column, this author wrote: “Like Brandon Webb, Rzepcynski was passed over for several draft rounds (fifth round 2007), and scouts called him a 'back-end starter, at best'. His advocates think he could be better than Webb as he throws harder, and actually gets more GBs (60%+ GB% in minors, just five HR in 254.2 IP). We won't get *that* carried away, as Webb is fantastic, but while Marc's control isn't great yet, the Jays' attention to defense make his upside enormous. Don't expect miracles in 2009, but look out in 2011!”  After 11 starts, there's really not much to add. His GB% is 52%, his xFIP is 3.88, and his control is still not great – walking 4.4/game.  If he stays the same pitcher in 2010, he'll be a decent #3/#4 SP type in mixed leagues, and if he shaves 1 BB/G off his rate, he could be a good #2.  Being in the AL East is the one worry,
but that should just serve to keep him undervalued on auction/draft.

Brett Anderson is my sleeper to target in 2010. His 3.58 second half ERA, coupled with a strikeout per inning, is intriguing. Anderson matured in the second half and with a full season under his belt, he should be ready for 200 innings next year. He’ll go undervalued in many leagues because of his 4.03 end-of-season ERA and a modest K/9 ratio. However, his strong second half makes him a worthy target next year.

 

 

 

While I agree with everyone on Carlos Gonzalez, I’ll provide another option for the audience. Drew Stubbs of the Reds had stolen 46 bags in AAA before being called up to bat leadoff. He’ll finish the season with eight homers and ten stolen bases. He provided a nice mixture of stats over the final few months and may go undrafted next year. While he hasn’t showed much power in the past, it’s quite possible that he’ll be a product of Great American Ballpark. Seven of his eight homers were hit in the small confines of Cincinatti’s bandbox. If he were to leadoff, like he did over the last two months, he’d have the likes of Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce driving him in and could be a lock for 100 runs scored and 30 steals. Think Michael Bourn with the potential for a bit more pop.