Going Yard By Going Green AB:HR Ratio written by:
Jason Sarney
01/06/2009
In this climate of energy efficiency, one must do all that he or she can to power their everyday needs while saving as much of that energy as possible. In fantasy baseball, a team’s overall power is essential for survival. Being able to conserve your auction dollars and "power guy" picks on draft day, and getting that eventual late gem, is what will separate champs from chumps.
Sure, certain things are necessity in life, so we have to pay for them, much like there are certainties in baseball, which we too, have to pay for. Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn and Albert Pujols, to name a few, will be amongst the league leaders in home runs, we know this. We also know that like the energy we need, it costs a pretty penny, or over 200 of them per gallon at times.
So why not join the ranks of those who car pool, bike to work, use energy efficient light bulbs, and most importantly, find those efficiently priced soon to be heavy hitting power sources.
How can we do that you ask? How about AB:HR ratio? Home run to At Bat ratio is as simple and easy as it sounds. Basically, how many ABs does it take a batter to “go yard.” Easy.
The purpose of this stat is finding guys who may not have had the number of homers the above guys had, simple because they didn’t have nearly the amount of at bats. Take youth as the main factor, add in time in the minors here and there and injuries, and you can get an idea of who just may be able to pump out at least 30 dingers in ‘09, based on their ’08 AB:HR ratio.
First, let’s take a look at the top 10 HR leaders from last season and their AB:HR ratio:
Ryan Howard- 48
- 12.71
Adam Dunn- 40
- 12.93
Carlos Delgado- 38
- 15.74
Albert Pujols- 37
- 14.16
Ryan Ludwick- 37
- 14.54
Manny Ramirez- 37
- 14.92
Ryan J. Braun- 37
- 16.51
Miguel Cabrera- 37
- 16.65
Carlos Quentin- 36
- 13.33
Adrian Gonzalez- 36
- 17.11
So what can we take from this? First, it’s obvious the two HR leaders have the highest ratios in this group; nothing earth-shattering there. The next nugget of info we can take from this, is the fact that despite having just 480 ABs in 2008 thanks to an injured shoulder, Quentin still was a Top 10 power producer. In 2009, if he boasts a similar ratio, and gets 600+ ABs like Dunn, Braun, Cabrera and Gonzalez, 2009 may just be a 40+ HR season for the young slugger.
Looking at Quentin’s ratio got me thinking about some other sluggers who should increase their totals, if you factor in a full season of at bats and a similar AB:HR number.
Guys to watch for higher HR totals in 2009: (510 ABS or less)
Extra Base Hits Looking at the second half of the season can provide us with some insight as to which players may continue a certain trend into the following year.
Extra base hits include homeruns, doubles and triples.
Let's see who had the most extra base hits that were not homers.
Those are the hitters who could turn some of those doubles and triples into homeruns in 2009.
Alex Rios had a breakout year in 2007, smacking 24 homers and scoring 114 runs. He had little support in 2008 and his numbers took a hit. But Rios made up for his lack of power with 32 SB's. While we were left wondering where Rios' power had gone in the first half, Rios came on strong in the second half. After hitting only four in the first half, Alex knocked eleven balls out of the park post-break and was second to only Albert Pujols with 39 post-break extra base hits. If you double Alex Rios' second half, he would have hit 22 homers, which is right on par with the 24 he hit in 2007. If five of his 28 combined doubles and triples turned into homers, he would have been on pace for nearly 30 homers. It wouldn't be surprising if Rios punched out a .300 - 25 - 100 - 75 - 25 line in 2009.
Stephen Drew ranked third in the majors with 38 post-break extra base hits. Nine went for homers and 29 others went for doubles and triples. All this, in only 270 AB's. Drew also batted .326 during the second half of the season and could really break out in his age 26 season. 30 HR isn't out of the question. Read More...
Four Category SB Threats It doesn't pay to draft one dimensional players such as Michael Bourn, Juan Pierre, Willy Taveras or Chone Figgins because as much as they help you in one category, they kill you in four others.
Here's a list of some guys who could provide you will three or four categories in 2009.
Jayson Werth has been mentioned by us numerous times. After a 24/20 campaign in limited time last year, Werth enters a contract year and has a clean bill of health. Get him on your roster, but expect batting AVG to be the one category he hurts you in.
Corey Hart disappointed in 2008 with a .269 AVG and only 76 runs scored. He did drive in 91 and go 20/23. I like Werth better for next year and Hart better in keeper leagues.